President Trump’s readiness to use coercive tariffs presents a profound threat to the postwar economic and political ordermega swerte, introducing an unpredictability to global commerce that makes it difficult for trade partners to know how to react — and next to impossible for businesses to plan.
But he is not the only danger the world economy faces and may not even be the biggest. That may be President Xi Jinping of China, whose more strategic and calibrated industrial and economic policies are fundamentally distorting and harming global trade.
Trade usually refers to the combination of imports and exports. But Mr. Xi has upended that idea, radically changing China’s trade interaction with the rest of the world, at least when it comes to manufactured goods. Over the past six years, China’s imports of such goods increased by an average of only $15 billion a year, essentially no change at all when inflation is taken into account. Its manufactured exports, on the other hand, have grown more than 10 times as fast, by over $150 billion a year. When it comes to manufactured goods, trade with China is virtually a one-way street.
China now dominates global manufacturing, and its trade surplus dwarfs the biggest run by Germany and Japan during their eras of postwar export supremacy. Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China. Their export sectors are hurting — see Germany — and not hiring.
China’s growing trade surplus in manufactured goodsThe value of China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now dwarfs that of the export champions of the 1990s.
2.0% of global gross domestic product
China
1.5
1.0
germany
0.5
japan
0
−0.5
united states
−1.0
slot empire−1.5
1990
2000
Overall, violent crime fell 3 percent and property crime fell 2.6 percent in 2023, with burglaries down 7.6 percent and larceny down 4.4 percent. Car thefts, though, continue to be an exception, rising more than 12 percent from the year before.
But the move backfired in a way that few supporters expected. Californians in 2021 actually tossed nearly 50 percent more plastic bags, by weight, than when the law first passed in 2014, according to data from CalRecycle, California’s recycling agency.
2010
2020
2.0% of global gross domestic product
China
1.5
1.0
germany
0.5
japan
0
Phpgames Casino−0.5
united states
−1.0
−1.5
1990
2000
2010
2020
2.0% of global gross domestic product
China
1.5
1.0
germany
0.5
japan
0
−0.5
united states
−1.0
−1.5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Sources: Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations; Volkmar Baur
Note: Data for China is available beginning in 1994. Data for Germany and Japan is available through 2023.
\n\n",mediaComponent:"Graphic"},hed:"China’s growing trade surplus in manufactured goods",leadin:"The value of China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now dwarfs that of the export champions of the 1990s.",caption:"",altText:"",label:"",source:"Sources: Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations; Volkmar Baur",note:"Note: Data for China is available beginning in 1994. Data for Germany and Japan is available through 2023.",credit:"",textAlign:"left",maxWidth:"body",marginInline:true,marginBlock:true}}],theme:"news",sheets:{}},"uses":{"url":1}}], form: null, error: null, params: {}, route: {"id":"/china-manufacturing"} }); }); }Why is Mr. Xi doing this? To make up for the Chinese government’s mismanagement of its domestic economy.
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